BULLION - Bullion counter may remain on sideways path amid lot of volatility. Gold prices inched up on Wednesday as markets eyed ongoing political and trade turbulence, even as a U.S. decision to delay tariffs on some Chinese goods boosted risk appetite. On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump backed off his Sept. 1 deadline for 10% tariffs on some Chinese imports, boosting equity markets . Protests in Hong Kong, uncertainty about Brexit, and the sustained Sino-U.S. trade war still trouble markets. Investors are focused on the Federal Reserve's annual symposium next week. Traders see a 91.2% chance of a 25 basis-point rate cut by the Fed this September. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbed 6 basis points overnight, pushing away from a three year low touched a week ago.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade with negative path as oil prices fell on Wednesday after industry data showed U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly rose last week, erasing some gains from the last session that were stoked after Washington said it would delay tariffs on some Chinese goods. The move by U.S. President Donald Trump sent commodities, stocks and other assets higher because of optimism the effects of the trade war, already being felt in economies across the world, will be blunted. Oil prices surged by as much as nearly 5 percent. China's July crude oil throughput rose 4% from a year earlier, official data showed on Wednesday, buoyed by improved refinery profit-margins and as new plants started production. Markets had been pummelled in recent weeks amid tough talk from Trump on trade and they remain on tenterhooks due to the unpredictably of the U.S. president. U.S. natural gas futures rose on Tuesday on forecasts for greater heat and cooling demand next week than previously expected despite an increase in output to a record high.

BASE METAL - Base metals may trade on sideways path. China reported a raft of unexpectedly weak July data on Wednesday, including a surprise drop in industrial output growth to a more than 17-year low, underlining widening economic cracks as the trade war with the United States intensifies. London copper fell on Wednesday, as copper exports from some of Peru's top mines resumed after weeks of protests that soothed supply concerns. Copper exports from Peru's port of Matarani have resumed after anti-mining protests that had blocked key infrastructure in the country's southern copper belt eased over the weekend, a spokeswoman for the port operator said. The London Metal Exchange (LME) lead market was roiled in early June by news of an unplanned outage at the Port Pirie lead smelter in Australia. It's just been upended again by a second shutdown of the plant, which is operated by Nyrstar, the Belgian company that had to be rescued from potential insolvency by trade house Trafigura. Indonesia's President Joko Widodo will make the final decision on whether the country brings forward an export ban on mineral ore that is currently due to come into force in 2022, the minister in charge of mining said on Tuesday.

 

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BULLION - Bullion counter may remain on firm path as gold prices gained on Tuesday, hovering near a more than six-year high hit the previous day, as concerns around protests in Hong Kong, a slump in Argentina's markets and the ongoing Sino-U.S. trade war dented risk appetite. Protesters managed to shut down Hong Kong's airport, the world's busiest cargo airport, on Monday. Fears of a possible return to interventionist policies, gripped the Argentine market after market-friendly President Mauricio Macri lost by a much wider-than-expected margin in presidential primaries.. Investors are focused on the Federal Reserve's annual symposium next week. Traders see a 74% chance of a 25 basis-point rate cut by the Fed this September.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade with negative path as oil prices slipped on Tuesday, offsetting narrow gains in the previous session, as sluggish demand forecasts countered expectations that major producers would prop up oil prices by limiting crude oil output. U.S. oil output from seven major shale formations is expected to rise by 85,000 barrels per day (bpd) in September, to a record 8.77 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecast in its monthly drilling productivity report on Monday. Saudi Arabia, the de-facto leader of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), said late last week it plans to keep its crude oil exports below 7 million barrels per day in August and September to help drain global oil inventories. Saudi Aramco was ready for its IPO, but the timing for the deal will be decided by its sole shareholder, the Saudi government, a senior executive said on Monday. U.S. natural gas futures eased on Monday as the market focused more on an increase in production to record levels as opposed to forecasts for more demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

BASE METAL - Base metals may trade on sideways to weaker path. China's banks extended surprisingly fewer new yuan loans in July, while growth of money supply and total social financing also slowed, raising pressure on the central bank to ease policy further to support the slowing economy. Lead prices touched a two-week high on Monday after Belgium-listed Nyrstar said it had stopped production at its Port Pirie smelter in Australia, raising fears of shortages of the metal mainly used in car batteries. The stoppage is the second this year at the lead smelter and follows an outage in June and July, when 30,000 tonnes of metal were lost in the 12 million tonne market. Shanghai aluminum rose to its highest in more than two months on Tuesday, as a typhoon in China affected the world's top aluminum producer, raising concerns about supply disruptions. Facilities belonging to China Hongqiao Group 1378.HK were damaged by flooding after Typhoon Lekima wreaked havoc in the smelting heartland of Shandong, according to a statement from an affiliate firm. Indonesia aims to speed up enforcement of a ban on mineral ore exports that is currently due to come into force in 2020, news website Detik.com quoted coordinating minister for maritime affairs Luhut Pandjaitan as saying on Monday.

 

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BULLION - Bullion counter may remain on firm path as gold prices rose on Friday, holding above the key $1,500 per ounce pivot, as fresh concerns about the U.S.-China trade dispute and worries over global economic slowdown lifted demand for the safe-haven metal. Trade tensions between the United States and China further escalated after a report that Washington is delaying a decision about licenses for U.S. firms to restart trade with Huawei Technologies. Meanwhile, U.S. economic data pointed to a robust labor market as the number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, allaying some worries about the potential for a recession and helping U.S. Treasury yields rise. Central banks in New Zealand, Thailand and India stunned financial markets on Wednesday with a series of surprising interest rate cuts and pointing to policymakers dwindling ammunition to fight off a downturn.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade with positive path as oil prices rose on Friday, supported by expectations of more production cuts by OPEC amid fears the U.S.-China trade row could lead to a global slowdown, curbing demand for crude. Both contracts jumped more than 2% on Thursday to recover from January lows, buoyed by reports that Saudi Arabia, the worlds biggest oil exporter, had called other producers to discuss the recent slide in crude prices. Oil prices have still lost more than 20% from their peaks reached in April, putting them in bear territory. Global financial markets were rocked over the past week after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would impose 10% tariffs on Chinese goods starting September and a fall in the Chinese yuan sparked fears of a currency war. Saudi Arabia, de facto leader of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), planned to maintain its crude oil exports below 7 million barrels per day in August and September to bring the market back to balance and help absorb global oil inventories, a Saudi oil official said on Wednesday. U.S. natural gas demand is at an all-time high and expected to keep rising - and yet, prices are falling. U.S. gas futures this week collapsed to a three-year low, while spot prices were on track to post their weakest summer in over 20 years. In other markets, such lackluster pricing would cause investment to retrench and supply to contract.

BASE METAL - Base metals may trade on sideways to weaker path. Anti-mining protests in Peru have held up about $400 million in copper exports from some of the country's top mines and blocked supplies from reaching their operations for nearly three weeks, port operator Tisur said. Copper production in Democratic Republic of Congo rose 12.5% in the first half of the year from a year earlier to 672,272 tonnes, according to Central Bank figures. London nickel prices eased in early trade on Friday, slipping from a 16-month high struck in the previous session, after Indonesia's nickel miners association said it had urged the government not to bring forward a ban on mineral ore exports. Russian aluminium giant Rusal said on Friday lifting the share of high value-added products in its sales might prove to be tough in coming months due to the weaker market for the metal, which caused a 38% slump in its first-half net profit.

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BULLION - Bullion counter may remain on firm path as gold prices edged up on Wednesday as the ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China continued to boost the appeal of safe-haven assets. Gold prices rose again on Thursday after topping the $1,500 mark in the previous session, as central banks around the world slashed interest rates amidst fears of a global recession. Spot gold rose 0.3% to $1,505 per ounce as of 0104 GMT. On Wednesday, gold soared over 2% to break the $1,500 barrier for the first time in over six years. U.S. gold futures were down 0.3% at $1,515.30 an ounce. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans signaled on Wednesday he was open to lowering rates to bolster inflation and to counter risks to economic growth. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields dropped further below three-month rates, an inversion that has reliably predicted recessions in the past. Central banks in New Zealand, India and Thailand surprised markets with aggressive easing on Wednesday. The Philippines central bank is expected to cut later today.

ENERGY- Oil futures jumped more than $1 a barrel on Thursday amid a weaker dollar, recovering ground after concerns that a global economic slowdown would hurt crude demand sparked losses of over 4% in the previous session. Brent crude had rebounded to $57.52 a barrel, up $1.29, or 2.29%, from its last close by 0032 GMT, while U.S. crude futures jumped $1.30, or 2.54%, to $52.39 a barrel. Both contracts hit their lowest levels since January on Wednesday after a surprise build in U.S. crude inventories added to worries that the brewing Sino-U.S. trade war could further dampen demand-growth this year. Bloomberg News reported the Saudis have decided the market slump is intolerable and all options are on the table. Trade war rhetoric will continue to guide markets, but the comments from Saudi Arabia could lead to unprecedented action to stabilise prices.. U.S. natural gas futures for Wednesday slipped close to a 38-month low with a 5% drop in crude prices and forecasts for less gas demand next week than previously expected. With less hot weather expected through late August, Refinitiv forecast demand in the Lower 48 states would slide to 89.8 bcfd next week from 91.7 bcfd this week as power generators burn less gas to keep air conditioners running.

BASE METAL - Base metals may trade on sideways to weaker path. Markets fear an escalation in the trade war could negatively affect metals demand China, the world's second largest economy. U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday said his tough stance on China's economic and trade policies would ultimately benefit the American economy, even as Beijing signaled it could strike back by curbing sales of chemicals known as rare earths that are used in everything from iPhones to military equipment. China consumes nearly half of all industrial metals. Coppers three-month price was weaker over the afternoon, falling to an intraday low of $5,665 per tonne, before closing at $5,705 per tonne. On the international market, zincs three-month price settled at $2,261 per tonne on Wednesday, its lowest price since October 2016. Nickels three-month price on the London Metal Exchange rallied by around 3% after the close of trading on Wednesday August 7, reaching a year-to-date high of $15,500 per tonne in what market participants labelled a broadly technical move. 

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BULLION - Bullion counter may witness some profit booking at higher levels. Gold prices continued to rise recently as the protracted trade war between the United States and China intensified after Washington designated Beijing a currency manipulator, prompting a flight towards safe-haven assets. The U.S. Treasury Department said on Monday it had determined for the first time since 1994 that China was manipulating its currency, and that Washington would engage the International Monetary Fund to eliminate unfair competition from Beijing. The U.S. action comes after China allowed its yuan to weaken past the key 7-per-dollar level on Monday for the first time in more than a decade, following Trump's decision to impose 10% tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese imports, ending a month-long trade truce. Gold priced in sterling soared to a record high on Monday, spurred by fear of a disorderly British exit from the European Union amidst trade tensions.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade on firm path as oil prices edged up on Tuesday, but remained under pressure as the escalating U.S.-China trade war stoked concerns over global economic growth and future demand for crude. The international benchmark fell more than 3% on Monday as traders worried the ongoing trade tensions between the worlds two biggest oil buyers would dent appetite for fuel. A yearlong U.S.-China trade war boiled over as Washington accused Beijing of manipulating its currency after China let the yuan drop to its lowest point in more than a decade. Irans seizure of the Iraqi oil tanker had raised some concerns about potential Middle East supply disruptions in the Gulf. Concerns that the trade conflict has entered a phase of retaliatory action were weighing down on the sentiments in the oil market, which at the moment is taking lesser notice of the Middle East tensions. U.S. natural gas futures fell to a fresh 38-month low on Monday after production rose to record highs over the weekend and the amount of gas flowing to the nation's liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals dropped.

BASE METAL - Base metals may trade on sideways to weaker path. London copper fell for the sixth straight session on Tuesday, hovering around a two-year low, as a year-long U.S.-China trade war escalated and the Chinese offshore yuan fell to an all-time low. Proposed U.S. tariffs against the European Union over aircraft subsidies could concentrate market control over some supplies of copper alloy in the hands of a German-owned firm and hurt American businesses, U.S. industry players said. BHP Group is expanding its nickel business and plans to ramp up sales for the fast-growing electric vehicle sector. Russian aluminium producer Rusal suspended operations at its Achinsk alumina plant on Monday and evacuated all but essential staff after a fire broke out a nearby Russian military base, Rusal said.

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BULLION - Gold (Oct) can test 35020 while taking resistance near 35510 and silver (Sep) can dip lower towards 40500 and resistance near 41300. The price of gold shot up from about 34040 to around 35630 as investor flocked into gold as yields plummeted following the increase in tariffs between the US and China. Trump said he would impose an additional 10% tariff on $300 billion worth of Chinese imports on Sept. 1 after U.S. negotiators returned from trade talks in Shanghai, saying China had failed to buy large quantities of U.S. agricultural products as promised. Trump also said if trade negotiations fail to progress he could raise tariffs further - even beyond the 25% levy he has already imposed on $250 billion of imports from China. The tariffs may also force the Federal Reserve to again cut interest rates to protect the U.S. economy from trade-policy risk. The October Fed funds rate futures FFV9 have jumped to now fully price in a rate cut in September, compared with only around 60% before the tariff announcement. Another 25 basis point move is priced in by December.

ENERGY- Crude oil may move towards 3650 while taking resistance near 3820. steadying after an overnight plunge following U.S. President Donald Trump’s move to impose more tariffs on Chinese imports, intensifying a trade war that has hit global growth. Brent crude slumped more than 7% on Thursday, its steepest drop in more than three years. U.S. crude fell nearly 8%, posting its worst day in more than four years, The collapse ended a fragile rally built on steady drawdown’s in U.S. inventories, even as global demand looked shaky due to the trade dispute between the world’s two biggest economies. Total U.S. oil demand in May fell 98,000 bpd to 20.26 million bpd, data showed earlier this week. OPEC and partners including Russia, an alliance known as OPEC+, have been curbing output this year to support the market. In July, OPEC production revisited a 2011 low, helped by a further cut by Saudi Arabia. Natural gas can recover towards 158 while taking support near 149. Despite the rally on Wednesday, the hotter trends in the overnight data are still not hot enough to impress and suggests there is still a bearish bias in the market. The rally we say yesterday was probably driven by short-covering due to the slight change in the weather pattern and grossly oversold technical indicators.

BASE METAL - Copper may test 436 while taking resistance near 445. Copper hitting its lowest in over three weeks after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would slap a 10% tariff on the remaining $300 billion of Chinese imports from next month. The reactivation of a smelter belonging to Chile’s state-run Codelco, the world’s top copper producer, will be further delayed until the end of October this year after missing a previous target of April. Copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dipped 0.6%, aluminium eased 0.2%. Three-month LME copper touched its lowest since July 10 at $5,876 a tonne before paring losses to $5,899, a decline of 0.5%.Zinc and lead dropped 0.8% each. However, nickel rose 1.2% and tin was almost unchanged. Zinc can test 187 while taking resistance near 192. Lead may test 149 while taking resistance near 154. Nickel may rise towards 1040 while taking support near 990. company PT Aneka Tam bang’s nickel ore output in Jan-Jun rose 27% on year to 4.79 mln tn. Aluminum may test 135 while taking resistance near 140.

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BULLION - The price of gold shot up from about 34040 to around 35630 as investor flocked into gold as yields plummeted following the increase in tariffs between the US and China. Trump said he would impose an additional 10% tariff on $300 billion worth of Chinese imports on Sept. 1 after U.S. negotiators returned from trade talks in Shanghai, saying China had failed to buy large quantities of U.S. agricultural products as promised. Trump also said if trade negotiations fail to progress he could raise tariffs further - even beyond the 25% levy he has already imposed on $250 billion of imports from China. The tariffs may also force the Federal Reserve to again cut interest rates to protect the U.S. economy from trade-policy risk. The October Fed funds rate futures FFV9 have jumped to now fully price in a rate cut in September, compared with only around 60% before the tariff announcement. Another 25 basis point move is priced in by December.

ENERGY- Steadying after an overnight plunge following U.S. President Donald Trumps move to impose more tariffs on Chinese imports, intensifying a trade war that has hit global growth. Brent crude slumped more than 7% on Thursday, its steepest drop in more than three years. U.S. crude fell nearly 8%, posting its worst day in more than four years, The collapse ended a fragile rally built on steady drawdowns in U.S. inventories, even as global demand looked shaky due to the trade dispute between the worlds two biggest economies. Total U.S. oil demand in May fell 98,000 bpd to 20.26 million bpd, data showed earlier this week. OPEC and partners including Russia, an alliance known as OPEC+, have been curbing output this year to support the market. In July, OPEC production revisited a 2011 low, helped by a further cut by Saudi Arabia. Despite the rally on Wednesday, the hotter trends in the overnight data are still not hot enough to impress and suggests there is still a bearish bias in the market. The rally we say yesterday was probably driven by short-covering due to the slight change in the weather pattern and grossly oversold technical indicators. Weekly storage report is expected to show a 57 Bcf injection for the week-ending July 26. Energy Aspects is calling for a 55 Bcf injection. Intercontinental Exchange EIA Financial Weekly Index futures settled at 60 Bcf. Last year the EIA recorded a 31 Bcf injection for the period, and the five-year average build is 37 Bcf.

BASE METAL - Copper hitting its lowest in over three weeks after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would slap a 10% tariff on the remaining $300 billion of Chinese imports from next month. The reactivation of a smelter belonging to Chiles state-run Codelco, the worlds top copper producer, will be further delayed until the end of October this year after missing a previous target of April. Copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dipped 0.6%, aluminium eased 0.2%. Three-month LME copper touched its lowest since July 10 at $5,876 a tonne before paring losses to $5,899, a decline of 0.5%.Zinc and lead dropped 0.8% each. However, nickel rose 1.2% and tin was almost unchanged. Nickel prices were also under pressure after Indonesia's state mining company PT Aneka Tam bangs nickel ore output in Jan-Jun rose 27% on year to 4.79 mln tn. Benchmark aluminium on the London Metal Exchange dropped for a third session and slipped 1.1% in final open-outcry trading to $1,780 a tonne, its weakest since July 3.

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